QE2 is the name for the latest round of quantitative easing announce by America’s Federal Reserve this week.
If you want a 15 minute lecture on what QE is, go here What is quantitative easing?, it’s actually quite enlightening.
The Fed can’t cut interest rates (already done that, so has the Bank of England), so it has to print money to stimulate the US economy.
This has an impact on assets prices – stocks and bonds. We’ve done it here as well. It means, with low interest rates, that investors are driven to more risky assets to try and beat inflation with their money. Weaker, more indebted, less efficient companies survive, when in reality they should have failed, or been bought up by more successful rivals. Good companies are thus penalised, and handicapping the better businesses hampers your economy. So if you’ve got a decent business, blame the central bankers if you can’t expand, get credit, or buy up a competitor.
It also weakens the currency, which makes it easier to export, or such is the theory. But every major currently is trying to do the same, and they are all chasing their currencies down. Sooner or later, a major economy is going to say enough is enough, and introduce trade barriers, which should ensure we all suffer.
China is already not happy – they hold trillions in foreign currency – mainly dollars, which have just devalued. And China needs to export to maintain its growth. Where do most of those exports go? You guessed – the most consumption hungry country on the planet – the USA.
Commodity and food prices are already rising, and this would accelerate the trend. Inflation in prices but not in wages will hurt far more than anything the Chancellor proposed recently.
But anything to avoid the issue for a bit longer, which is the Fed’s game plan.
The Fed, by the way, has been in existence for 97 years. And in that time the dollar has lost 95% of its value. Not long to go!
Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts
Friday, 5 November 2010
Wednesday, 17 June 2009
Boom & bust?
Where is the economy going on? And equally important, in what timescale? I wish I knew!
Unemployment is up a whole 10% in the last quarter to 2.26 million. Yet there has been a bounce in the stock market, and our oh so short term memory is leading us towards the end of the recession. After the stock market collapse last year, people expected a bear market rally and that is what we have had. There has been a bounce in economic activity as businesses were forced to restock after cutting back so sharply last year. But the rally continued, and people have started to question whether this is a bear market after all. They wonder if the recovery is actually genuine. Surely this is what bear market rallies do – they suck in investors, stocks rise, until eventually there aren’t any buyers left, and stocks plummet again.
It’s always wise to consider the fundamentals. Any recovery in corporate earnings is probably short lived, because it has been made by cost-cutting, and by government spending money that we don’t have. At some point the economy must generate growth without the benefit of extra government money fuelling it, and cost-cutting in corporations can only go so far. What cost-cutting does is make life harder for businesses in the future. By all means cut out waste now, but remember on a countrywide scale that firing people leads to higher unemployment, which leads to less spending power, which leads to fewer sales for your company.
The general public is desperately paying off debts as fast as it can, and so are companies. I make no complaint – it’s what people should be doing, but people also need to be aware of the long term implications of this policy. Companies are doing everything they can at the moment to reduce their indebtedness, usually by selling more shares to their shareholders to repay debt. They’re not raising money on the market to invest in future growth. They’re even repaying debt when interest rates are low.
And it can clearly be seen that interest rates are likely to rise – look at the standard variable rate mortgages now, and what a building society will offer you as a fixed rate of two to five years in the future. There is about 1½ percent difference – higher of course. They expect interest rates to rise. So does everybody else.
Which in the long term tends to leads to inflation. The government will be pleased, because then it will be repaying at the enormous amounts of debt that it incurred in bailing out banks etc with cheaper money. We, as taxpayers, should be pleased as well because it will reduce the amount of time that we have to pay interest to the people who have bought this debt. But we as consumers will be paying out through an inflationary period in the longer term.
In the near term, we are still in a recession and there may be some deflation. In short, we’re back to boom and bust.
Unemployment is up a whole 10% in the last quarter to 2.26 million. Yet there has been a bounce in the stock market, and our oh so short term memory is leading us towards the end of the recession. After the stock market collapse last year, people expected a bear market rally and that is what we have had. There has been a bounce in economic activity as businesses were forced to restock after cutting back so sharply last year. But the rally continued, and people have started to question whether this is a bear market after all. They wonder if the recovery is actually genuine. Surely this is what bear market rallies do – they suck in investors, stocks rise, until eventually there aren’t any buyers left, and stocks plummet again.
It’s always wise to consider the fundamentals. Any recovery in corporate earnings is probably short lived, because it has been made by cost-cutting, and by government spending money that we don’t have. At some point the economy must generate growth without the benefit of extra government money fuelling it, and cost-cutting in corporations can only go so far. What cost-cutting does is make life harder for businesses in the future. By all means cut out waste now, but remember on a countrywide scale that firing people leads to higher unemployment, which leads to less spending power, which leads to fewer sales for your company.
The general public is desperately paying off debts as fast as it can, and so are companies. I make no complaint – it’s what people should be doing, but people also need to be aware of the long term implications of this policy. Companies are doing everything they can at the moment to reduce their indebtedness, usually by selling more shares to their shareholders to repay debt. They’re not raising money on the market to invest in future growth. They’re even repaying debt when interest rates are low.
And it can clearly be seen that interest rates are likely to rise – look at the standard variable rate mortgages now, and what a building society will offer you as a fixed rate of two to five years in the future. There is about 1½ percent difference – higher of course. They expect interest rates to rise. So does everybody else.
Which in the long term tends to leads to inflation. The government will be pleased, because then it will be repaying at the enormous amounts of debt that it incurred in bailing out banks etc with cheaper money. We, as taxpayers, should be pleased as well because it will reduce the amount of time that we have to pay interest to the people who have bought this debt. But we as consumers will be paying out through an inflationary period in the longer term.
In the near term, we are still in a recession and there may be some deflation. In short, we’re back to boom and bust.
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